confidence-building measures at this stage would increase political space in Tehran for those who want a deal and argue there is a difference between the policies of the Trump and Biden administrations. Rather than increased pressure, which created this mess to begin with, U.S. Ahead of the next round of talks, the United States must not misread Iranian posturing. The Biden administration is careful to not appear weak or accommodating to Iran, but in doing so it is sending the wrong signals. President Joe Biden to revert to threats and increased pressure at this stage would be fatal to diplomacy. The track record of maximum pressure was a uniform failure on all fronts, and for U.S. Even then, Iran remained in line with the deal’s terms for one more year and only began reducing compliance with its nuclear restrictions after Europe failed to abide by its commitments in the deal in the face of U.S. Iran was fully complying with the 2015 nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), until the Trump administration reneged and pursued a “maximum pressure” campaign of severe economic sanctions. Ross rings the alarm bell about Iran’s nuclear expansion, which is undoubtedly a proliferation risk, but ignores any mention of the U.S. He argues diplomacy can only succeed if this fear is restored and the Biden administration applies “pressure far more effectively.” For Ross, this would come in the form of making it clear to Iran that it “risks its entire nuclear infrastructure” if it “makes a diplomatic outcome impossible.” But in this period of uncertainty, many in Washington are misreading the signals out of Tehran and enacting a self-fulfilling prophecy that can doom diplomacy.Ī recent piece for Foreign Policy by Dennis Ross blames a “loss of Iranian fear” for Iran’s expanding nuclear program. government and its allies have grown increasingly concerned that Iran is not serious about those talks succeeding, and they are raising prospects of a plan B to step up pressure on the Iranians. After months of delay, Iran’s new conservative presidential administration has said it will return to negotiations over restoring the 2015 nuclear deal on Nov.

and Iranian governments are at a critical juncture in their long-running feud.

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